ECMWF IFS vs ICON
ECMWF or ICON: which should I trust for European waters?
ECMWF has the finer global grid and the stronger reputation for medium-range accuracy. ICON is a strong second European option with free data, and its regional versions add detail in the first one to two days.
| ECMWF IFS | ICON | |
|---|---|---|
| Provider | ECMWF | DWD |
| Type | Global model | Global model |
| Area | Global | Global |
| Grid size | about 9 km | about 13 km |
| Updates | 4 times a day | 4 times a day |
| Looks ahead | 15 days | 8 days |
| Data licence | CC-BY-4.0 (open data) | CC-BY-4.0 (DWD open data) |
Choose ECMWF IFS when
- You are looking 3 to 10 days ahead.
- You want the model most often seen as the reference.
- You are watching a developing low or a storm track.
Choose ICON when
- You want a European-built second opinion within about a week.
- You plan to follow up with ICON-EU or ICON-D2 for the next 30 to 48 hours.
- You like to see more than one model agree.
On the water
A good routine is ECMWF for the overall plan, then ICON-EU or ICON-D2 for the next day or two, and radio forecasts as a check.
Figures come from the Ilma catalog and the providers' own pages. Forecast skill changes as models are upgraded, so this page describes what each model is built for, not a ranking.