Best weather models for sailing the Caribbean: which to use
The Ilma catalogue lists 44 weather models that cover the Caribbean: 39 global and 5 regional or other. It also lists 14 wave and ocean models. 21 of the weather models have publication times in the catalogue. The finest grid among them is about 3 km (RRFS).
The trade winds are fairly steady for much of the year, but they are speeded up between islands and in the lee of high ground. The hurricane season brings the added risk of tropical cyclones, whose track and strength are hard to forecast. For storms, follow the official advisories from the national hurricane centres, and treat model output as additional guidance.
Weather models that cover the Caribbean
Sorted by grid size, finest first, then by name. This is not a ranking: a finer grid shows more detail but does not make a forecast more accurate. A model is listed when it covers at least half of the area.
| Model | Provider | Resolution | Run cycles |
|---|---|---|---|
| RRFS | NOAA | ~1.6 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ARPEGE | Météo-France | ~3.8 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ECMWF ENS | ECMWF | ~4.9 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ECMWF IFS | ECMWF | ~4.9 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| RDPS | ECCC | ~5.4 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| UKMO Global | Met Office | ~5.4 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| Aurora | Microsoft | ~5.9 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| ACCESS-G | Bureau of Meteorology | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| IMD GFS | India Meteorological Department | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| KIM | KMA | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| NAM | NOAA / NCEP | ~6.5 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| NCUM | NCMRWF | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| NEPS-G | NCMRWF | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| GFS | NOAA / NCEP | ~7 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ICON | DWD | ~7 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| JMA GSM | JMA | ~7 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| RAP | NOAA / NCEP | ~7 nm | Every hour |
| GDPS | ECCC | ~8.1 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| SREF | NOAA / NCEP | ~8.6 nm | four times a day (03Z, 09Z, 15Z and 21Z) |
| NAVGEM | US Navy FNMOC | ~10 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| BAM / MONAN | CPTEC / INPE | ~11 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| MOGREPS-G | Met Office | ~11 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| CMA-GFS | China Meteorological Administration | ~13 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| FengWu | Shanghai AI Laboratory | ~13 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| GEFS | NOAA / NCEP | ~13 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| GEPS | ECCC | ~13 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| ICON-EPS | DWD | ~14 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| JMA GEPS | JMA | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| AIFS ENS | ECMWF | ~15 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ECMWF AIFS | ECMWF | ~15 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| FourCastNet | NVIDIA | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| FuXi | Fudan University | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| GraphCast / GenCast | Google DeepMind | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| NOAA AI-GFS (AIGFS) | NOAA | ~15 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| Pangu-Weather | Huawei | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| ACCESS-GE | Bureau of Meteorology | ~18 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| AICON | DWD | — | Not catalogued yet |
| AIGEFS | NOAA / NCEP | — | Not catalogued yet |
| CMA-GEPS | China Meteorological Administration | — | Not catalogued yet |
| HGEFS | NOAA / NCEP | — | Not catalogued yet |
| NAEFS | NOAA / ECCC | — | Not catalogued yet |
| PEARP (ARPEGE ensemble) | Météo-France | — | Not catalogued yet |
| SL-AV | Hydrometcentre of Russia | — | Not catalogued yet |
| WeatherNext 2 | Google DeepMind | — | Not catalogued yet |
Wave and ocean models
| Model | Provider | Resolution | Run cycles |
|---|---|---|---|
| STOFS / P-ETSS | NOAA | ~0.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| DWD GWAM / EWAM / CWAM | DWD | ~2.7 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| Copernicus Global Ocean | Mercator Ocean / Copernicus Marine | ~4.9 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| Navy HYCOM / ESPC | US Navy | ~4.9 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| RTOFS | NOAA / NCEP | ~4.9 nm | once a day (00Z) |
| Met Office WAVEWATCH III | Met Office | ~5.4 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| MFWAM | Météo-France | ~5.4 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| ECMWF WAM | ECMWF | ~7.6 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| GFS-Wave | NOAA / NCEP | ~13 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| OSCAR | NOAA / ESR | ~13 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| AUSWAVE | Bureau of Meteorology | — | Not catalogued yet |
| GDWPS | ECCC | — | Not catalogued yet |
| JMA wave models | JMA | — | Not catalogued yet |
| OceanMAPS | Bureau of Meteorology | — | Not catalogued yet |
How to use several models
Compare at least two models, and look at the newest run of each. Where they agree, you can plan with more confidence; where they differ, treat the forecast as uncertain and keep a margin. Read Using several models and Which model for my area? for the method. Official forecasts and warnings come first.
Open the coverage map to check any point, or see all sailing regions.