Which model should I use?
A practical way to combine a global model, a local high-resolution model and an ensemble for your area and passage.
A simple method
- The big picture (global model). Look at the pressure pattern for the whole passage in one or two global models, such as ECMWF IFS, GFS, ICON or ARPEGE. Do they agree on where the lows and fronts are and when they arrive?
- Confidence (ensemble). Check an ensemble (ECMWF ENS, GEFS) for the chance of exceeding your wind or wave limit during the passage. Ensembles and probabilities
- The coast (regional model). For the next one to three days near land, switch to the finest regional model that covers your area (table below). It shows the sea breeze, wind around headlands and showers that the global model cannot.
- The sea (wave model). Use a wave model that is driven by the wind model you trust, and read the period and direction as well as the height. Waves
- Timing. Note the run time of each forecast. A model that is a run older may not know the latest. Check again before departure. When does a new run arrive?
Local high-resolution models by region
These are the models in the catalog that are finer than the global models. This is a starting list, not a ranking: which one does best depends on the place and the weather type.
| Region | Regional models to look at | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Baltic and Nordic seas | MEPSDMI HARMONIEEstHARMONIEICON-EUICON-D2 | Several national models overlap; compare them |
| North Sea, Channel, Biscay, British Isles | AROMEUKVKNMI HARMONIEMet Éireann HARMONIEICON-EU | Strong tides: wave models alone do not include them |
| Iberia and the Atlantic islands | AEMET HARMONIE-AROMEAROME-PTMeteoGalicia WRF | Coastal wind is shaped by capes and the trade-wind flow |
| Western and central Mediterranean | AROMEICON-2ILaMMA WRFBOLAM / MOLOCH | Mistral and sea breezes need fine grids |
| Adriatic, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean | ALADIN-HRSKIRONMeteo.gr WRFMGM Turkey | Bora and meltemi are local winds the fine models handle best |
| United States | HRRRNAMRAPNBM | HRRR is updated every hour but covers about 18 hours |
| Canada | HRDPSRDPS | Includes the Great Lakes and both coasts |
| Caribbean and French overseas | AROME-OM | Otherwise use global models and ensembles |
| Australia and New Zealand | ACCESS-CNZ Convective-Scale ModelMetOcean WRF / SWAN | Pacific passages: global models and ensembles |
| East Asia | JMA MSMKMA LDAPSCMA-MESOHKO models | Typhoon season: see tropical cyclone models |
| South America and southern Africa | INPE WRF / EtaSMN WRFSAWS UM | Fewer regional options; global models are the base |
| Open ocean, all regions | Global models: ECMWF IFS, GFS, ICON, ARPEGE, UKMO Global | Plus an ensemble; grid spacing hardly matters |
Not every model covers every part of its region: check the coverage map. Other national models exist and are being added.
See the full list, with coverage and update times, on the Models page or the coverage map, where you can click any spot to list every model that covers it.