Best weather models for sailing the North Sea: which to use
The Ilma catalogue lists 49 weather models that cover the North Sea: 39 global and 10 regional or other. It also lists 22 wave and ocean models. 22 of the weather models have publication times in the catalogue. The finest grid among them is about 1.5 km (UKV).
The North Sea is shallow, open to the Atlantic and busy with fast-moving lows, so wind and sea state can change within a day. Tide against wind makes steep, short seas on some coasts, which wave and surge models can help to anticipate. Several national weather services run regional models here, and their results often differ in timing and strength of fronts.
Weather models that cover the North Sea
Sorted by grid size, finest first, then by name. This is not a ranking: a finer grid shows more detail but does not make a forecast more accurate. A model is listed when it covers at least half of the area.
| Model | Provider | Resolution | Run cycles |
|---|---|---|---|
| UKV | Met Office | ~0.8 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| HARMONIE DINI (DMI) | DMI | ~1.1 nm | eight times a day (00Z, 03Z, 06Z, 09Z, 12Z, 15Z, 18Z and 21Z) |
| ICON-D2 | DWD | ~1.2 nm | eight times a day (00Z, 03Z, 06Z, 09Z, 12Z, 15Z, 18Z and 21Z) |
| ICON-D2-EPS | DWD | ~1.2 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| ICON-D2-RUC | DWD | ~1.2 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| MOGREPS-UK | Met Office | ~1.2 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| HARMONIE MEPS (Nordic) | MET Norway, SMHI, FMI & partners | ~1.3 nm | eight times a day (00Z, 03Z, 06Z, 09Z, 12Z, 15Z, 18Z and 21Z) |
| KNMI HARMONIE | KNMI | ~1.3 nm | Every hour |
| ICON-EU | DWD | ~3.5 nm | eight times a day (00Z, 03Z, 06Z, 09Z, 12Z, 15Z, 18Z and 21Z) |
| ARPEGE | Météo-France | ~3.8 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ECMWF ENS | ECMWF | ~4.9 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ECMWF IFS | ECMWF | ~4.9 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| UKMO Global | Met Office | ~5.4 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ARPEGE Europe | Météo-France | ~5.9 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| Aurora | Microsoft | ~5.9 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| ACCESS-G | Bureau of Meteorology | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| IMD GFS | India Meteorological Department | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| KIM | KMA | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| NCUM | NCMRWF | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| NEPS-G | NCMRWF | ~6.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| GFS | NOAA / NCEP | ~7 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ICON | DWD | ~7 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| JMA GSM | JMA | ~7 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| GDPS | ECCC | ~8.1 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| NAVGEM | US Navy FNMOC | ~10 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| BAM / MONAN | CPTEC / INPE | ~11 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| MOGREPS-G | Met Office | ~11 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| CMA-GFS | China Meteorological Administration | ~13 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| FengWu | Shanghai AI Laboratory | ~13 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| GEFS | NOAA / NCEP | ~13 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| GEPS | ECCC | ~13 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| ICON-EPS | DWD | ~14 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| JMA GEPS | JMA | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| AIFS ENS | ECMWF | ~15 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| ECMWF AIFS | ECMWF | ~15 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| FourCastNet | NVIDIA | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| FuXi | Fudan University | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| GraphCast / GenCast | Google DeepMind | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| NOAA AI-GFS (AIGFS) | NOAA | ~15 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| Pangu-Weather | Huawei | ~15 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| ACCESS-GE | Bureau of Meteorology | ~18 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| AICON | DWD | — | Not catalogued yet |
| AIGEFS | NOAA / NCEP | — | Not catalogued yet |
| CMA-GEPS | China Meteorological Administration | — | Not catalogued yet |
| HGEFS | NOAA / NCEP | — | Not catalogued yet |
| NAEFS | NOAA / ECCC | — | Not catalogued yet |
| PEARP (ARPEGE ensemble) | Météo-France | — | Not catalogued yet |
| SL-AV | Hydrometcentre of Russia | — | Not catalogued yet |
| WeatherNext 2 | Google DeepMind | — | Not catalogued yet |
Wave and ocean models
| Model | Provider | Resolution | Run cycles |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSHcmod | BSH | ~0.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| DMI HBM | DMI | ~0.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| STOFS / P-ETSS | NOAA | ~0.5 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| Copernicus NW Shelf | Copernicus Marine (NWS MFC) | ~0.8 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| NEMO-Nordic | SMHI | ~1.1 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| SMHI / DMI wave models | SMHI, DMI | ~1.6 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| MyWaveWAM | MET Norway | ~2.2 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| DWD GWAM / EWAM / CWAM | DWD | ~2.7 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| Copernicus Arctic (TOPAZ) | Copernicus Marine (ARC MFC) | ~3.2 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| Copernicus Global Ocean | Mercator Ocean / Copernicus Marine | ~4.9 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| Navy HYCOM / ESPC | US Navy | ~4.9 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| RTOFS | NOAA / NCEP | ~4.9 nm | once a day (00Z) |
| Met Office WAVEWATCH III | Met Office | ~5.4 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| MFWAM | Météo-France | ~5.4 nm | twice a day (00Z and 12Z) |
| ECMWF WAM | ECMWF | ~7.6 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| GFS-Wave | NOAA / NCEP | ~13 nm | four times a day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z) |
| OSCAR | NOAA / ESR | ~13 nm | Not catalogued yet |
| AUSWAVE | Bureau of Meteorology | — | Not catalogued yet |
| GDWPS | ECCC | — | Not catalogued yet |
| JMA wave models | JMA | — | Not catalogued yet |
| OceanMAPS | Bureau of Meteorology | — | Not catalogued yet |
| RIOPS | ECCC | — | Not catalogued yet |
How to use several models
Compare at least two models, and look at the newest run of each. Where they agree, you can plan with more confidence; where they differ, treat the forecast as uncertain and keep a margin. Read Using several models and Which model for my area? for the method. Official forecasts and warnings come first.
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